Local Government Debt Credit risk and Safe Debt Scale Based on the KMV Model
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Credit Markets, Limited Commitment, and Government Debt
A dynamic model with credit under limited commitment is constructed, in which limited memory can weaken the effects of punishment for default. This creates an endogenous role for government debt in credit markets. Default can occur in equilibrium, and government debt essentially plays a role as collateral and thus improves borrowers’ incentives. The optimal provision of government debt acts to ...
متن کاملMicrosoft Word - Huiling He (SE 511849)_TOCSJ.docx
Based on the idea of KMV model to build China's local government debt credit risk model, and associate the credit risk with borrowing scale to put forward the moderate debt scale of local government. Studies show that: The credit risks of local government debt is very sensitive to debt scale, When debt scale increases to a certain extent, the government’s default probability will rise sharply, ...
متن کاملGovernment Debt and Risk Premia
I document that government debt is related to risk premia in various asset markets: (i) the debt-to-GDP ratio positively predicts excess stock returns with out-of-sample R2 up to 30% at a five-year horizon, outperforming many popular predictors; (ii) the debt-to-GDP ratio is positively correlated with credit risk premia in both corporate bond excess returns and yield spreads; (iii) higher debt-...
متن کاملChina’s Local Government Debt and Economic Growth
This paper explores the impact of China’s local government debt on economic growth. This analysis, based on a panel of 31 provinces over 14 years, takes into account a broad range of economic growth determinants as well as various estimation issues including heteroskedascity and omitted variable. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between China’s local government debt and eco...
متن کاملAsset Liquidity, Debt Valuation, and Credit Risk
This paper presents a structural debt valuation model that links default probabilities and recovery rates of corporate securities to asset market liquidity. This linking is advantageous for risk management and regulation of financial institutions in that it provides a method of calibrating the relationship between probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD). Two innovations in the ...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: The Open Cybernetics & Systemics Journal
سال: 2014
ISSN: 1874-110X
DOI: 10.2174/1874110x01408011261